@Keith
Solar generation is notoriously difficult to predict in winter, with the sun being so low in the sky. It doesn't take much in the way of low cloud/mist/fog, or obstacles between you and the horizon, to throw it away off.
I adjust/lie about the "solar capacity" (mine's EW split, so even more tricky) on this page to get somewhere closer, depending on time of year...
https://app.wonderwatt.com/settings